China’s quest to feed itself has taken it as far as Kenya’s macadamia nut groves and Bolivia’s cattle ranches, as part of a push in recent years to diversify food sources away from traditional Western suppliers.

The market-share loss for US-allied nations is a win for countries from the Global South, which Beijing has sought to court as geopolitics increasingly cleaves the world into distinct blocs. There are obvious beneficiaries like crop powerhouse Brazil, which has clawed market share in corn and soybean exports from the US, while Russia is selling more grains, edible oils and meat to China.

The range of products and suppliers includes those that are not usually in the spotlight, underscoring Beijing’s determination to cultivate new trade partners and safeguard food security since US President-elect Donald Trump’s trade war exposed China’s dependence on the US and its allies.

That all matters because the country is the world’s top agricultural importer, and tariffs have been an obvious weapon for China to deploy in retaliation. As Trump returns as president this month and will likely escalate trade conflict, China is in better shape to weather trade shocks.

Shifting Allegiances

China is reducing overall agricultural imports from Western nations

“Slowly but surely, it seems like China’s finding a path that allows it to rely on international markets, allows it to rely on trade partners, but doesn’t create insecurity,” said Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at Trivium China, a policy research consultancy.

While in most cases the volume is still too minuscule compared with the well established exports, the efforts do mean that China now has a web of suppliers it can call in should it need to switch sources.

China’s campaign to shift away from Western legacy suppliers is also set to further shake up the over $1 trillion global agricultural trade, creating long-lasting consequences for countries and producers increasingly pulled into its web.

Lobsters: Change in Fortunes

The benefits of the trade are rippling across Vietnam’s coastal towns, sources of lobster for China’s growing middle classes. Though Vietnam has been exporting lobsters to China since at least 2000, the trade peaked in 2020 when Beijing banned imports from Australia. And even though the ban was lifted last month, Australia will need to work hard to claw back its market share — Vietnam is now the No. 1 supplier of lobsters to China.

Take the northeastern town of Song Cau, where about 90% of its lobster output gets shipped to China. On an early morning in November, Van Phuoc port was jammed with vehicles loaded with lobsters, so crowded that sometimes farmers had to line up to weigh their goods before loading them on trucks for the 1,350-kilometer (840-mile) journey to the Chinese border. Farmers were bracing for even busier times as China is expected to import more seafood ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Australia’s Loss, Vietnam’s Gain

A downturn in China-Australia ties benefited other lobster exporters

“We depend entirely on China, from A to Z,” said Tran Van Thom, who farms some 15,000 lobsters. Since he started farming lobsters in 1996, he’s gone from poverty to now owning two houses, one scooter and making enough to support five children.

And it’s not just lobsters. Beijing has vowed to take steps to open its market to a slew of Vietnamese agriculture products, align standards for farm products and build designated passages to clear cargoes at borders. These measures have pushed bilateral trade between Vietnam and China last year up by 19.3% from a year earlier to about $205 billion, according to Vietnam Customs.

Nuts: Eyeing Africa

Africa is emerging as the frontier of China’s trade diversification push.

Typically a supplier of metals, minerals and fuel to China, the continent is growing in importance as a source of agrifood ingredients, from more established trades like sesame seeds and cashews to fruit and meat. In the past 18 months, China has opened up to South African and Zimbabwean avocados, Tanzanian honey and Madagascan mutton.

American nuts were among a list of products Beijing targeted with higher tariffs in 2018, and the hefty duties pushed Chinese importers to seek alternative suppliers. This comes as demand for nuts is surging in China as the growing middle class splurge on health foods. Nuts are also popular as gifts during festivals like the Lunar New Year, in place of traditional items like sweets and baijiu, a spirit.

African Farmers Cash in on ‘Green Gold’

Chinese demand for health foods like nuts is soaring

“We call macadamia ‘green gold,’” said David Gitonga, a macadamia trader from Embu, a key growing region some 130 kilometers from Nairobi. “Chinese business is working so well for us.”

He recalls the time in the wake of the pandemic when prices of raw nuts had slumped so much that farmers wanted to cut down their trees — until Chinese customers came and caused prices to surge sevenfold. Edited Facta Nuts & Fruits, the company he owns, is now building a $1 million processing facility. Gitonga has contracted some 12,000 farmers from the region, which he plans to at least double by the end of this year.

Beef: Permit Handouts

As consumption for premium food products in China grows, Beijing has also become increasingly cognizant of the power of its massive market, using it to leverage import permits as a way to further its geopolitical agenda.

In 2019, cattle associations in Bolivia received a delegation of Chinese customs officials who were there to evaluate the veterinary health of local herds and the sanitary conditions of beef processing, recalls Alejandro Diaz, a rancher who was then the head of the local industry group. It was the last year of the presidency of the left-wing Evo Morales, who was driving closer relations with China.

They came with their own translators, said Diaz. The local ranchers even hired an Argentinean specializing in preparing documents to meet Chinese sanitary requirements for exports.

“We put in good money for all the hospitality reception,” he said. All the onerous efforts paid off — later that year, China opened its market to Bolivian ranchers.

More South American Meat

China approved more permits for imports from non-Western countries

China governs imports of meats and other food products through a registration system, and manages a changing list of companies approved for exports. While Beijing cites diseases and sanitary reasons for any restrictions, the system is also seen to favor friends over foes.

China’s more recent moves to open up more diverse sources comes despite the oversupply of meat in the country due to the economic downturn, a further sign of the importance of these approvals as political gestures. Beijing has approved more chicken factories in Thailand since lifting a ban in 2018. In 2023 it resumed mutton imports from Uruguay, and last year pork imports from Russia.

New Risks

Beijing might be safer with alternative sources of supplies, but overdependence on China is spurring new risks for exporters. Demand in the world’s second-largest economy is weakening as a recovery struggles to regain momentum.

Moreover, relations with Beijing are multifaceted and any friction could suddenly upend trade. Vietnam, for example, has a history of hostile relations with China, and though the neighbors have mended relations since fighting a border war, frictions remain over the South China Sea.

The Vietnamese lobster industry is also watching the impact of Beijing’s recent detente with Canberra, which has seen it drop almost all trade restrictions.

If China stops or significantly reduces imports from this area, “we will be crushed, there’s no other way,” said Thom, the lobster farmer. “My hair stands on end if they don’t take my calls, after they’ve had already received billions of dong worth of lobsters. I can only sleep well when they reply on WeChat.”